BearcatLair.com - Bearcats Basketball Season Preview

October 16, 2009

Ryan Pence
BearcatLair.com Staff Writer

The University of Cincinnati men's basketball program, entering its 108th year of existence, is simply looking to get things back on track. A proud program formerly known for its winning ways now finds itself in a struggle to return to the national limelight and bring fans back to its games.

Finally, after enduring a difficult rebuilding process that seemed as though it may last an eternity, the team, and school may finally have themselves back on the path to success. In his 4th year as head coach, Mick Cronin seems to have finally assembled a cast of characters good enough to earn the school its first trip to the NCAA tournament since 2005.

Since the end of last season, the team has parted ways with two of its players, and welcomed five more to the group. They've added another assistant coach in George Jackson, and they've worked harder than ever before to get their guys in shape for the season. But will it be good enough? It's nearly impossible to tell how good a team can really be until they step out onto the floor, but by simply taking a look at the roster, old faces and new, we should be able to get an idea of how the Bearcats stack up with some of the top teams around the country.

Notable Losses - (SF) Alvin Mitchell, (PF) Mike Williams

We'll go ahead and start with the key losses, despite the fact that there really aren't too many of them. The Bearcats lost small forward Alvin Mitchell this offseason when he was dismissed from the team for a violation of team rules prior to the start of the Big East Tournament. This shouldn't affect the Bearcats much since, despite being one of the more highly regarded recruits in the Bearcats' 2007 recruiting class, Mitchell's career really never accelerated to the point most fans had hoped heading into his junior season.

The Bearcats also lose senior power forward Mike Williams to graduation. This loss, unlike the loss of Mitchell, could pose some problems for the 'Cats. However, I don't think it's anything they can't work through. Williams, a former McDonalds All-American who transferred to Cincinnati in 2006, only played one season for the Bearcats due to injury and NCAA transfer rules. Williams, a starter for the 'Cats last season, averaged 28 minutes and just under 10 points per game while pulling down just over 5 rebounds per contest. His loss will hurt, but the Bearcats should have enough talent and depth to make up for his production.

Notable Additions - (PG) Cashmere Wright, (SG) Sean Kilpatrick, (PF) Ibrahima Thomas, (SF) Lance Stephenson, (PG) JaQuon Parker

Next up are the key additions made to the Cincinnati rotation this offseason. And, as you can see, the Bearcats added a whole lot more than they lost. For starters, redshirt freshman Cashmere Wright will finally see the court for the Bearcats. The torn ACL that cost him his entire first season with the team is fully healed, and if you read my conversation with Dave Andrews you would know that his power output is higher than ever. With a year of learning under his belt, and a fully recovered ACL, I expect Wright to accomplish big things for the Bearcats from the moment he sees the floor.

Oklahoma State transfer Ibrahima Thomas will also see the floor for the Bearcats after sitting out last season due to NCAA transfer rules. Because of those same rules, Thomas will not become eligible until the end of the fall quarter, making his Bearcat debut a big one; The Crosstown Shootout against rival Xavier. Thomas' thin frame makes him more of a face up power forward rather than someone who wants to battle around the rim, something that can be taken for both a positive and a negative. While Thomas may not be able to battle physically with some of the top big men in the Big East, his above average ball handling for a 7-footer and ability to shoot the three could make him a nightmare to defend and stretch out the opposing team's defense.

The Bearcats will also welcome three incoming freshman to this year's roster. Sean Kilpatrick, Lance Stephenson, and JaQuon Parker make up what could end up being the most talent-filled recruiting class brought in by Mick Cronin during his tenure. Each of these players bring toughness and energy to the floor, and they each bring their own special attributes as well.

Parker, a point guard out of Virginia, is as physically gifted as any incoming freshman in the country. He has a rare blend of size, strength and athleticism for point guard position, and this will help him compete with some of the finest guards in the Big East right from start. His mental toughness will allow him to compete at this level right away, and despite having to battle with Cashmere Wright and Deonta Vaughn for minutes, I think Parker will find his way onto the floor a lot for the Bearcats this season. When he does, I think the fans will be very pleased with what they see. Parker is a true gem in the 2009 class, and the Bearcats are lucky to have him.

Kilpatrick, a shooting guard from New York, carries an above average volume level as a freshman, meaning he can play at a high level of energy and sustain that energy throughout the entire game. His scouting report coming out of high school was that of a flat out scorer. As I mentioned earlier, he is from New York, and that shines through in the toughness and attitude with which he plays. There is no doubt Kilpatrick has a lot of work left to do, but he should be able to make some contribution off the bench for the 'Cats.

The last Bearcat recruit in the class of 2009 you may have heard of before. His name is Lance Stephenson; he comes from Brooklyn, New York, and is arguably the most talented player in the 2009 class. When you look at Stephenson, you may find it hard to believe that you're looking at a true freshman. After you see him play, it may become even harder. Stephenson was being recruited by every school in the country until some legal troubles combined with the filming of a documentary that appeared on MTV led some to believe he may have forfeited his amateur status. One coach who didn't stop recruiting him was Mick Cronin, and it may pay dividends for the team; even if it's only for one season.

Stephenson brings size, strength, and athleticism to the table, and is a nightmare for anyone to defend. He plays the game with the toughness he brings along from his playing days in New York, and despite being just a freshman, he is proving himself capable of being a vocal leader for the team. Stephenson does struggle at times with his outsides shot, but guys like Kilpatrick and returning starter Deonta Vaughn should be able to pick up the slack.

Who's Coming Back?

The Bearcats return 4 of 5 starters from last year's team that finished 18-14 (8-10 Big East). In mid-February, it appeared that team would give the Bearcats their first NCAA berth in 4 years, but a terrible final stretch that ended with a first round loss to a previously winless (in Big East play) Depaul team brought their season to a disappointing end. Needless to say, that wasn't the ending any of them had hoped for, and they will look to avoid a similar fate this season.

Even aside from Deonta Vaughn, who earned Third Team All-Big East honors last season, the Bearcats return a lot of talented guys who figure to increase their production this season. The most notable of the group is sophomore power forward Yancy Gates. Gates, who averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds per game last season, has by all accounts improved his game tremendously during the offseason and could end up as one of the most dominant big men in the conference.

The Bearcats also return regular starters Rashad Bishop and Larry Davis. Bishop, who averaged 5 points and 4 rebounds per game, will be counted on this season not only on the court, but off of it. His leadership will play a big role in the success of the team, and the staff is confident that he will be able to fill that role.

Davis averaged nearly 7 points a game as a sophomore, and his offensive output should only increase. However with Dion Dixon, the team's leading scorer off the bench with just over 7 points per game, also returning, Davis shouldn't expect to see much of an increase in minutes, if any at all.

The two other big men that should see minutes for the Bearcats are Anthony McClain and Steve Toyloy. Toyloy, who arrived on campus later than usual last season after his transfer from JUCO, appears to be in much better shape now that he's been given the opportunity to work with trainers for an entire offseason. His strength will be unmatched by nearly anyone in the country. In fact, his 30 reps in the 185 pound bench press test would place among the top five performers in the history of the NBA Draft Combine.

Anthony "Biggie" McClain is the big question mark here. He was the highest rated recruit in the Bearcats 2007 class, but to this point in his career he has also left the most to be desired. If he can get things on track this season, the Bearcats could be a force to be reckoned with down low. But that will remain to be seen until he can actually get out on the court and prove himself.

Season Prediction

It seems as though each year's Bearcat team has been substantially better than its predecessor since head coach Mick Cronin arrived on campus in 2005, and I don't expect things to be any different this year. In fact, I think this year's team will see the biggest year-to-year jump in performance that we've seen to date.

This team, unlike in years past, has the talent to compete with the best the Big East (and the country, for that matter) has to offer. Their inexperience in some areas will surely cost them at times, but I don't think it's anything they can't overcome in the end.

The Big East will be tough this year, but I think the Bearcats can hold their own. And, if a few things fall their way, they could find themselves right in the thick of the Big East race.

Projected Starting Five

This was the part of the story where I intended to predict the starting rotation for the Bearcats, but with so many variables I think it would be worthless at this point. You can go ahead and pencil in Deonta Vaughn and Yancy Gates, but that's where the certainties end. Larry Davis, Rashad Bishop, and Steve Toyloy have all put themselves in position to compete for a starting role, and when Ibrahima Thomas returns for the game against Xavier, he could find himself in the thick of things as well.

You might be thinking to yourself that Lance Stephenson is an obvious omission from those who are guaranteed to start, but I've heard rumblings that Lance may not start from the get go. Obviously a player of his caliber is going to see most of the minutes, but nothing is set in stone as of now.

That STILL leaves Cashmere Wright, JaQuon Parker, Dion Dixon, and Darnell Wilks all competing for a spot. As you can see, that STILL leaves a ton of room for argument as to who could end up starting. In my honest opinion Lance Stephenson, Deonta Vaughn, Yancy Gates, Larry Davis, Rashad Bishop, Steve Toyloy, Ibrahima Thomas, JaQuon Parker, Cashmere Wright, and Dion Dixon have all put themselves in position to compete for the majority of minutes. It may sound like a cop out to name nearly the entire roster, but I would argue that there is simply that much talent to choose from. Awfully nice, isn't it?

Season Prediction: 23-9 (11-7 Big East)

Post-season Projection: NCAA Tournament

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